It’s only August, but winter predictions are already arriving, and they couldn’t be more diverse.

The Farmers’ Almanac warns New England of a frigid, snowy winter coming in the 2025-2026 season. Meanwhile, meteorologists using computerized weather models are predicting La Niña conditions with warmer temperatures probably lingering until February.

So is it snowmageddon or just another disappointing slush fest?

The Battle of Forecasts

This year’s Farmers’ Almanac predicts “Chill, Snow, Repeat” conditions. They’re forecasting significant cold snaps in mid-January and another pronounced cold spell in mid-February.

Modern meteorologists don’t agree. Global warming is one factor. La Niña is another. And there are ocean patterns they can’t quite define. We currently only experience on average 11 nights below zero from December through February versus historical averages.

Why Can’t They Agree?

It all comes down to methodology. The Almanac uses a secret formula based on solar activity and stellar patterns, which they claim has an 80% success rate. NOAA relies on computer models examining ocean temperatures and weather systems, namely the emerging La Niña pattern which will likely define this winter.

History Provides Hints

Recent winters have been all over the map. Boston saw a record 110.6 inches of snowfall in 2014-2015, but just 9.8 inches last winter, the third-lowest on record.

La Niña typically means less snow for New England. Four out of every five similar La Niña events had below normal snowfall. But quick switches from El Niño to La Niña can mean early cold and snow, followed by a January thaw.

What Both Sides Agree On

Despite their differences, both forecasts predict:

• Rapid weather changes with alternating rain and snow systems
• The coldest weather in January and February
• More mixed precipitation along the coast, better snow chances inland

The Bottom Line

We could end up with a classic winter or another mild disappointment. Or both.

Smart New Englanders will prepare for either scenario. Remember: seven of the last 10 winters have been below normal for snow, but when snow does come, it can still be epic.

Winter starts December 21st, whether we’re ready or not. Whether we’ll need snowshoes or rain boots is anyone’s guess. At least we can look forward to months of speculation, which in New England is part of the entertainment.

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